Lending

How to Engage Your Customers About the Fed Rate Cuts

5 mins read
November 18, 2024
By
Mike Waterston

The Fed rate cuts that hopeful homebuyers were waiting for are finally starting to materialize. Yet, mortgage rates haven’t immediately fallen. In fact, mortgage rates ticked up a bit in October after the first rate cut in September.

Homebuyers are anxiously wondering what’s going on—and what’s coming next. This presents a huge opportunity to earn their trust by providing education, guidance, and insights into what they can expect from the housing market in the coming months.  

Mortgage lenders and loan officers (LOs) need to engage potential homebuyers to help them understand the complex dynamics and nuances of our industry. They need to help them feel (at least a little) more comfortable with what to expect. Earning their trust today will help lock in their business when they do make a mortgage-related decision—whether it’s their first home purchase, an upsize or downsize, or a long-awaited refinance.

Borrowers and homeowners want an expert they can rely on to answer their questions and offer guidance on the complicated mortgage market. Loan officers need to be able to speak as this kind of expert authority on factors influencing mortgage rates, as well as the broader housing market.  

This blog will cover:

Explaining the “Fed rate”?

While this might be “Mortgage 101” to you, most people only have a general understanding that the “Fed rate” is important in shaping the interest rates that consumers see on mortgages and other loans. So, it can be helpful to provide your customers with a broader definition and discussion of what the “Fed rate” is, and how the Federal Reserve thinks about its decisions to raise or lower that rate.

The “Fed rate” is the federal funds rate—the interest rate at which banks lend money to each other overnight to meet reserve requirements set by the Federal Reserve (the U.S. central bank). The Fed rate is one of the Federal Reserve’s only tools for fulfilling its “dual mandate” of maintaining stable inflation and maximizing employment.  

By lowering the rate, the Fed can stimulate borrowing, spending, and hiring during economic slowdowns, boosting employment. Conversely, by raising the rate, the Fed can cool down excessive borrowing and spending, helping to control inflation when the economy is overheated.  

But this is a delicate and extraordinarily difficult balance to achieve. The Fed rate is an admittedly “blunt” tool for influencing economic stability. And Fed rate changes have an infamous “long and variable lag,” meaning the impacts take months to play out.

Why Fed rates don’t directly drive mortgage rates

The Fed’s decision to cut rates in September and November 2024 undoubtedly included hopes of easing the unprecedented tension in the housing market. But there are several reasons why mortgage rates aren’t following Fed rates on a linear basis:

The mortgage market already priced in initial Fed rate cuts

The Fed began signaling its intention to cut rates way back in December 2023. Experts debated the timing and size of those cuts through most of 2024, but the sense of inevitability only grew stronger—peaking in August as evidenced by some anticipating emergency rate cuts and others predicting a massive .75% cut.

Many mortgage lenders took calculated risks by lowering their rates in advance of a likely Fed rate cut. The goal was to capture constrained homebuying demand by being among the first to lower their rates. By the time the Fed rate cuts were announced on September 18, most lenders had already priced in that initial .5% drop.

In other words, the mortgage market does not always respond to the federal funds, but rather anticipates where that rate is headed in the near future. This naturally leads to the other two macroeconomic factors that have actually pushed mortgage rates higher since the Fed’s September rate cut.

Employment data indicates a strong economy

Jobs reports in the U.S. continue to exceed expectations, signaling broader economic strength. This strong job market persists in spite of geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds and in defiance of both historic norms and expert-predicted slowing.

Mortgage lenders look at employment data as a sign of where demand will be in the coming months. A strong economy puts no pressure on lenders to lower mortgage rates. Moreover, employment data is also a reliable indicator of what the Fed will do with its rates in the coming months. If the job market remains hot, the Fed may hold off on additional rate cuts (and rate hikes may even re-enter the conversation).

Inflation has stagnated

We’ve come a long way from the surging inflation we saw 18 months ago. Inflation now sits relatively close to the Fed’s 2% target. But experts always warned the “final mile” would be the most challenging.  

The mortgage market looks at inflation as a signal of what the Fed will do next. Fed officials made it clear throughout 2024 that they’re anxious about easing up too early—and they’re firm on their 2% target. So, stubborn inflation may contribute to a decision to hold off on further rate cuts in the near future.

Demand remains low in the mortgage-backed securities market

Mortgage lenders view mortgages as financial products and one of the main ways they realize value on these products is through the sale of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).  

As a result, mortgage rates can be heavily influenced by investor demand for MBS: When MBS are in high demand, lenders can realize higher yields. So, they’re incentivized to lower mortgage rates to drive mortgage volume and capture those higher yields.

Right now, inflation and other factors (even lingering effects from the 2008 housing crisis) are keeping demand for MBS relatively low. So, the MBS is not putting any downward pressure on mortgage rates.

What to watch: 10-year Treasury yields signal mortgage rates

Admittedly, the four factors above are just part of what’s influencing mortgage rates. The complex interplay of various factors is hard for even experts to untangle and reliably predict.

The best advice you can give homebuyers wondering where mortgage rates are headed: Watch the Fed’s 10-year Treasury yields. This figure provides a reliable shortcut to anticipating mortgage rates, rather than trying to calculate the relative influence of various macroeconomic factors on their own.

That’s because mortgages are long-term investments. So, the mortgage market values long-term indicators over short-term signals. The federal funds rate is considered a short-term rate (for the aforementioned overnight borrowing between banks). But the 10-year Treasury yield is one of the most reliable long-term indicators. It incorporates investor sentiment about future economic strength, global economic trends, and inflation expectations.

Right now, 10-year Treasury yields remain high by historic standards. After peaking in late 2023, they hit a recent low in mid-2024 and climbed back up in recent weeks. We’ve seen mortgage rates take a very similar path over the last year.

How education now can build loyalty for later

Loan officers are likely frustrated that long-awaited rate cuts haven’t resulted in a massive surge in homebuying. And they’re certainly not excited to see mortgage rates ticking up recently. But these pains his potential homebuyers even harder.

The best strategy at the moment is to lean into an empathetic approach: Recognize that homebuyers are feeling even more frustrated and confused by the mortgage market. This presents a tremendous opportunity to meet homebuyers where they’re at—engaging them with helpful education on what’s happening in the mortgage market right now.

Providing this much-needed support and guidance around how and when the Fed rate will impact mortgage interest rates can build invaluable trust and sow the seeds for long-term loyalty. So, when the time is right, you’ll be their first call.  

How Will the Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Cuts Impact Lenders?

Hear what Total Expert Founder & CEO Joe Welu and Chief Lending Officer Dan Catinella think lenders and loan officers can expect if rates continue to drop on the Expert Insights Podcast >

Resources

Related posts

AI

[Lykken on Lending podcast] Supercharging Mortgage Lending with AI

mins read
Read more

The mortgage industry is in the midst of a historic transformation—and artificial intelligence is leading the way. Our Founder & CEO, Joe Welu, joined David Lykken for an episode of the Lykken on Lending podcast to discuss how Total Expert’s AI solutions will reshape the customer journey for lenders.

From incubating leads and mining databases to nurturing post-close relationships, Joe shares how voice AI is giving loan officers “superpowers” that help scale productivity, improve retention, and focus on delivering the high-value advice consumers need most. With compliance guardrails built in and multiple AI agents on the horizon, this episode offers an inside look at the future of mortgage lending and why early adopters of AI will hold a major competitive edge.

Joe also explains why the human element remains central to homeownership, and how AI is designed not to replace loan officers, but to free them up for more meaningful conversations that strengthen customer trust and drive long-term loyalty.

Catch the conversation to hear how AI is revolutionizing lending and why Joe believes those who embrace it will be tomorrow’s market leaders.

Supercharging Mortgage Lending with AI
AI

[Daily Mortgage News Podcast] Joe Welu Talks Agentic AI in the Mortgage Industry

mins read
Read more

Total Expert Founder & CEO Joe Welu recently joined Robbie Chrisman for an episode of the Daily Mortgage News podcast where they discussed the current (and future) state of the mortgage industry, challenges facing lenders and loan officers, and the solutions that AI-enabled tools can provide in difficult markets.

Agentic AI is reshaping loan officer productivity and customer engagement. With Total Expert’s new AI Sales Assistant, lenders can automate lead incubation and qualification—achieving human-like conversion rates in weeks, not months. Joe also highlights the power of voice AI to revive aged leads, trigger refinance opportunities, and prevent deals from falling through the cracks, all without the need for massive call centers and without removing loan officers’ ability to build authentic human connections with borrowers and homeowners.

That’s because AI-enabled tools are designed to reduce the administrative and repetitive tasks that take you away from what you do best: advising customers and guiding them toward the best possible financial outcomes. Joe also shares insights on selecting AI partners wisely, managing data responsibly, and capitalizing on both front- and back-office efficiencies. As the AI arms race heats up, Total Expert aims to empower originators—not replace them.

Joe and Robbie's discussion begins at the 4:55 mark.

AI

Delivering AI Solutions that Drive Real Value in Financial Services

mins read
Read more

By Pete Karns, Chief Product Officer, Total Expert

AI is no longer a future state—it’s already here, embedded in everything from ride-sharing apps and food service to factories and farms. In the world of financial services, though, this ubiquity comes with pressure to integrate AI fast, appear innovative, and keep up with competitors—all while being mindful of evolving federal and state compliance requirements. Moving fast without a plan or awareness of up and downstream implications often leads to AI-enabled solutions that either underdeliver or don’t deliver at all.

At Total Expert, we’ve taken a different path: thoughtful integration over flashy announcements. As more financial institutions wrestle with what “real AI adoption” should look like, here’s what we’ve learned and what lenders need to consider to get it right.

Where enterprise AI goes wrong

Too many financial services leaders have experienced what I call “AI failure to launch (and scale).” They’ve rushed to try unintegrated AI-enable offerings and bolt on AI tools—often generalist chatbots, white-labeled versions of generative tools, and/or hooking up to MCP servers—without a clear sense of how these tools will solve their business problems or add potential risk. The result? The occasional value-add result. However, what we see more is poor user adoption, wasted spend, and limited impact.

This is the same trap we saw with “digital transformation” a decade ago, or the original horizontal SaaS applications that evolved or were replaced by vertical-specific solutions. AI-enabled solutions offer tremendous, generational promise but they risk becoming vanity-first, value-later tools. We are focused on the former.

AI that thinks and adapts: Welcome to agentic AI

Let’s make one thing clear: not all AI is created equal.  

Chatbots have been commonplace in financial services for a decade now, but remain rigid, rule-based tools that handle repetitive tasks.  I’ve worked with “AI” services for more than 15 years and each had their own place and potential when used properly. Herein lies the opportunity. Modern lenders that are focused on retaining and growing their customers in an ultra-competitive market need something more dynamic. Enter AI agents that can understand context, adapt on the fly, and speak in a human-like way. These agents are coachable, brand-aware, and learn from every interaction. They don’t follow scripts—they think in real time. And when built correctly, they become a seamless part of your customer experience.

This is the evolution from AI as a support function to AI as a trusted team member.

Total Expert recently launched an AI Sales Assistant that puts this principle into action. It functions as a scalable, intelligent teammate—able to engage leads, deliver personalized conversations, and identify high-potential opportunities—all while staying aligned with your brand voice and compliance requirements. It’s not a chatbot bolted onto a CRM—it’s a fully integrated AI-enabled solution, utilizing data, embedding within workflow orchestration, and playing nice with application logic because it has the necessary context to work within your lending ecosystem.

The real “why” behind AI adoption

Before choosing any AI solution, or any technology solution, financial services firms must ask themselves: What business problem are we solving?

For example, when mortgage rates dropped for a few weeks in September 2024, our customer intelligence capabilities identified nearly $2 billion in immediate refinance opportunities. But no team of loan officers could scale quickly enough to reach every qualified lead. That’s where AI tools prove invaluable—automating first-touch outreach at scale, surfacing the best opportunities, and empowering human teams to scale up execution to drive retention and growth.

Why embedded beats bolted-on

The types of AI-enabled solutions we are talking about can’t function effectively in isolation. Without access to timely and accurate customer data, and invoked within a specific workflow process, it can’t personalize interactions, anticipate needs, or drive conversions at the right time.

Picture an AI assistant offering a refinance to a customer, only to stall when asked for more details. If it doesn’t know the customer’s current rate or financial profile, the experience feels hollow. That’s not just ineffective—it damages trust.

By contrast, when AI-enabled solutions are embedded within a unified customer experience platform like Total Expert, it draws on a 360-degree view of the customer. It knows the data, understands the history, and delivers contextually rich conversations that convert.

This is why we’re designing our AI capabilities with a focus on the unique needs of financial services organizations. The same purpose-built approach has earned the Total Expert platform its unmatched reputation for usability and time to value.

Generalist AI offerings can be a gamble that increase costs—and time to value

Implementing AI that’s not purpose-built for financial services introduces two major risks:

1. Usability failure: Your team must spend months customizing and configuring a generalist AI tool to make it work for your specific needs—if it will ever work at all. For example, imagine you’re a loan officer and one of your referral partners introduces you to a borrower. Now, you have to choose the best way to approach the first conversation with this borrower. There are countless permutations of questions and answers which all require deep personalization, compliance awareness, and consistent representation of the sales processes and brand tone of the lender. Generalist AIs will quickly reach their limitations in these complex use cases.

An industry-focused AI offering will be trained on this specific use case and provided with the context needed to hold a dynamic conversation with the borrower. This type of AI learns and adapts with each interaction, performing the most time-consuming tasks so you don’t have to.    

2. Compliance risk: Without built-in industry guardrails, you’re gambling with regulatory violations and brand safety.  As we know, the compliance landscape for financial services is broad and evolving at the federal and state level.  Look for AI offerings that are regulatory aware and enable you to configure them based on your organization’s risk tolerance and interpretations.

Lenders don’t need more tools—they need the right tools—ones that work out of the box, understand industry nuances, and deliver immediate, compliant value.

Ask these questions before you commit to an AI offering  

To maximize the probability of success, here’s a quick checklist for vetting solutions:

  • Can it solve a real, high-value business problem, and how? Review specific examples and ask to speak with other organizations that have implemented the tool.
  • Does it function as a true AI agent, not a static bot?
  • Can it be deeply integrated into your core system(s), workflow orchestration, and data?
  • Does it include financial industry compliance and brand guardrails?
  • Can it scale without sacrificing quality or regulatory integrity?

Building the future with purpose-built AI

Total Expert has always designed technology with financial services in mind, and our approach to utilizing AI is no different. We’re not chasing hype. We’re solving problems.

Our focus on AI isn’t simply building standalone features—it’s about embedded, intelligent, and deeply integrated AI solutions. It’s helping lenders scale smarter, engage more meaningfully, and turn data into action. Our AI Sales Assistant is just the beginning—an example of how purpose-built, AI-enabled solutions can solve real problems and deliver tangible value. We are already testing and exploring other AI-enabled solutions and I could not be more excited about the current and potential value our clients and our market will achieve.

Because when AI works, it’s not just impressive—it’s indispensable.

See Total Expert
in action

Sign up
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Create sustainable growth and increase loyalty with a customer engagement platform that’s purpose-built for financial institutions.
Schedule a demo