Customer Engagement

The Upside of Down

5 mins read
January 24, 2017
By
Total Expert

Investment banking firm Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) predicts a $280-billion dollar decrease in loan originations for 2017.  The report, titled “Mortgage Finance 2017 Outlook:  Higher Rates Could Be Here to Stay,” estimates a year-over-year drop in origination volume from 2016’s estimated $183-trillion to $155-trillion this year.  

One might conclude that companies and MLOs are going to be scrambling for pieces of a pie that’s 15-percent smaller than it was last year, with institutions like the Kroll Bond Rating Agency and the Mortgage Bankers Association also predicting a drop in originations for 2017.  The KBW report goes on to say, “We expect 2017 volumes to be lower than 2016 due to a sharp drop in refinance volumes, partially offset by higher purchase volumes.”

If you haven’t already adjusted your business plan and focus toward Realtor relationships and incubating buyer leads, it’s a good time to start.  Be sure to include Millennials in that plan, because they represent big numbers and big potential.  Millennials are…

  • the largest segment of the U.S. population at 87.2 million (U.S. Census Bureau)
  • the largest generational group of home buyers in the U.S. at 35%  (National Association of Realtors)

Millennials also fit squarely into age range where most people buy their first home.  Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Doug Duncan says, “Our surveys of the prime first-time home buying age people suggest a very high, 90 percent-plus, want to eventually own a home.”  Loan officers not only need to gear up to manage and communicate with a large number of buyer leads, they need to build endurance because Realtor.com’s Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke says the process from initial interest to closing on a home will likely take longer going forward:  “The potential is there for the market to have the most first-time buyers….with elongated length of time that people are spending in that journey.”  

Overall loan volume may go down this year, but your production doesn’t have to.  Building and sustaining relationships with Realtors and potential borrowers is the key to success in 2017.  

Capturing and keeping the interest of prospects over time is challenging, but doing this well will help solidify your relationships with real estate agents.  Co-branded marketing that is fresh, high quality and consistent is a great way to establish new Realtor relationships and strengthen the ones you have.  

There’s no better way to build loyalty than building business together.

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For years, lending organizations have measured technology's value by a simple test: did it get people to log in and complete a task? New dashboards, new buttons, and new workflows all designed to change human behavior just enough to extract a little more efficiency from the same process.

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What breaks when the old ceiling stays in place

Joe used an analogy at the 2026 HousingWire AI Summit to capture the stakes: a farmer who just got a bigger, faster horse looks to the neighbor’s field and watches them ride by on a tractor. Incremental improvements, like faster horses, were the best option for decades. That's not the case anymore.

The risk isn't hypothetical. We still see lenders asking AI to slightly improve an existing workflow, rather than asking what their workflow should look like with AI built in from the start. And the lenders who are still chasing incremental improvements will find themselves outpaced by competitors who were willing to embrace a new mindset, a new strategy, and new era.  

Joe also highlighted that speed and speed alone will not set you apart. Context will be the critical differentiator in an AI-enabled world. Being the first one to engage a borrower is great, but only if you actually have something to talk about. Historically, a legacy database only knew what a person remembered to type into it. If that information wasn't captured, the system, and the loan officer, wouldn't be able to use it for the next conversation.

Context is king, and the mindset shift that gets you there

This is where Joe took the conversation from diagnosis to direction. Total Expert's Customer IQ continuously aggregates zero-, first-, and third-party data to create a complete financial profile and interaction history for every customer. This provides lending teams with the context they need at the exact moment it matters, whether that's to a loan officer having a conversation or an AI agent handling a task automatically.  

To put things in a perspective that everyone can understand, Joe drew a comparison to how streaming platforms already personalize recommendations based on what the user has watched or listened to previously—i.e., context. When that context is missing, it's obvious and often frustrating. He argues borrowers feel that same disconnect when their lender's outreach doesn't reflect where they actually are in their financial journey.

This level of change doesn't happen without friction. There will be individuals, teams, and even entire organizations that resist this shift. But leaders have to be clear-eyed about the realities of how our industry is evolving and, more importantly, how consumer expectations are driving that evolution.  

The reframe Joe’s pushing lenders toward is to stop measuring success by tasks completed, and start measuring it by the lifetime value of the customer relationship. He calls this “turning relationships into appreciating assets," where organizations never lose a customer and continually find new ways to add value to that relationship over time, rather than treating every interaction as a standalone transaction.

The takeaway

AI doesn't create value on its own. It creates value when it's grounded in real customer context, embedded in the actual workflow, and pointed at a bigger goal than getting a task done faster. For lenders willing to rethink the engine itself, Welu says the payoff isn't incremental. It's the same seismic shift that farmers experienced when they realized that even the slowest tractor was more efficient than the fastest horse.

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