Lending

Navigating a Compressed Mortgage Market: Insights from the 2023 Mortgage Industry Event Season

5 mins read
December 29, 2023
By
Mike Waterston

2023 was a challenging year for the mortgage industry as rates slowly climbed to a peak of just over 8%, and more and more borrowers opted to hold out until the tides turned. Total Expert was on-site at events—like Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Annual and Digital Mortgage—all year long to connect with thousands of mortgage professionals, discuss the challenges and opportunities ahead, and strategize ways to position each mortgage lender for success.

Total Expert Chief Lending Officer Dan Catinella was front and center to engage with mortgage leaders from across the country, and these are his big takeaways from the 2023 mortgage event season:

Industry forecast and projections

Mortgage leaders across the country eagerly awaited an update from the MBA on where the housing market is headed. According to MBA Chief Economist Michael Fratantoni, the U.S. economy has been resilient throughout 2023, but MBA is forecasting that the combination of higher interest rates, tighter credit conditions, and a depletion of pandemic-era household savings will lead to a mild recession in the first half of 2024. Purchase originations are forecast to increase 11% to $1.47 trillion next year. By loan count, total mortgage origination volume is also expected to increase by 19%, to 5.2 million loans in 2024 from 4.4 million loans in 2023.

Fratantoni believes that as the economy slows and inflation moves lower, longer-term rates will decline from current levels, helping to bring mortgage rates lower. However, the spread between mortgage and Treasury rates remains roughly 120 basis points wider than typical, due to a combination of factors. MBA’s baseline forecast is for mortgage rates to end 2024 at 6.1% and reach 5.5% by the end of 2025, as Treasury rates decline and as the spread narrows.

Market growth opportunities

As the market has compressed significantly from 2021 levels, mortgage lenders are focusing heavily on where they grow. There’s a heightened focus on recruiting efforts and ensuring their originator acquisition strategy and process is optimized heading into 2024. Leaders at lenders of all sizes are keen to combine market intelligence technology with sales and marketing automation to maximize that effort. Many lenders are also looking at their current recruiting processes and adapting it to increase their ability to attract top sales talent to their organization.

Maximizing the lifetime value of every customer

With the decline in overall mortgage originations, lenders are realizing just how many opportunities they’re leaving behind by not nurturing relationships with their existing customers. Mortgage industry customer retention rates still hover in the ~20% range, so there’s a tremendous number of untapped opportunities buried in their customer databases. As data intelligence solutions, such as Total Expert Customer Intelligence, continue to evolve, they give sales teams at mortgage lenders the upper hand by ensuring that they don’t miss out on the next opportunity to serve their customers. In addition, while real estate agents are still the primary source of purchase business, lenders have long desired to get to the customer prior to them working with an agent. These customer intelligence solutions are no longer a nice to have—they’re now table stakes to compete in this new market.

Growing the homebuyer pool

Heightened interest rates and home prices have made buying and owning a home more difficult in the middle- and lower-income bands, particularly for first-time homebuyers. The most significant barriers include debt-to-income ratios, credit quality and history, and insufficient down payment. Mortgage lenders are putting a large focus on education and advice engagement strategies to combat these areas, and ensure potential homebuyers understand what and how they need to prepare for home ownership along with the key benefits over renting.

Maximize existing tech investments

As lenders have been on a steady quest to reduce operating costs and cost per funded loan, they’ve also been evaluating their entire technology stack and determining which solutions provide a real return on investment (ROI). What many lenders have found is that they’re paying for tech that doesn’t provide a clear ROI, has very little user adoption, and they aren’t using the native automation capabilities that they’re paying for. A large focus has been put on optimizing their current tech investments, leveraging the capabilities they can enable, and ensuring they maximize the value to their organization. Mortgage lenders are also using this market to ensure they’re aligning themselves with tech partners for the future—the ones that are proving they will continue to invest and innovate, even through tough times to best support their customers. Lenders desire to work closely with their tech partners to strategize around their business objectives and execute together to solve their challenges and react quickly to the opportunities in the market.

Mortgage industry events continue to provide the best opportunities for lenders, loan officers, and marketing professionals to connect and have honest conversations about the challenges—and opportunities—we’re all facing. I learn something new at every event, but this year it became clear just how important using data and intelligence will be for the mortgage industry in 2024. Without a plan or tools to turn data into action, you won’t be able to maximize customer retention, surface new opportunities, or provide proactive education and advice to all existing and potential homeowners.  

Connect with the Total Expert team to discuss how we can help you optimize your business and be prepared to seize the opportunities in the market.  

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AI

Beyond Speed to Lead: How USA Mortgage Built a $60M Opportunity Pipeline with AI-Enabled Automation

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The best leads aren't always new leads. In fact, they're hiding in the database every loan officer already has, waiting to be noticed.

That's the insight USA Mortgage discovered when they partnered with Total Expert to transform how their originators identify, nurture, and convert past customers into new opportunities. The result? ~$60 million in funded loan volume in just six months, plus another $175 million in pipeline.

But here's what's really interesting: the technology wasn't the bottleneck. It was the process.

The problem: leads disappearing in the middle

Walk into any mortgage lender, and you'll find the same story. Loan officers are smart, they work hard, and they have plenty of leads coming in from multiple sources: referral partners, purchased leads from Zillow and LendingTree, and their own past customers.

But somewhere between the lead arrival and the follow-up, opportunities vanish.

USA Mortgage's VP of Sales and Customer Experience, Alec Picinich, described the friction this way:

"We had strong loan officers and plenty of lead activity, but the handoff was the issue. There was no uniform system in place. Most producers had their own system—reminder-based inbox notifications, spreadsheets, personal call lists. The lack of centralization was the biggest issue. The gap was in the middle, where the opportunities kind of just disappeared."

All those disconnected systems led to inconsistent follow-up and limited visibility into what was working and what wasn't. And with no way to nurture borrowers who weren't quite ready today but might be ready next month, those opportunities got buried deeper and deeper under waves of new leads.

The result was predictable: lost deals, confused teams, and a corporate support function with limited ways to help scale best practices across the organization.

The Solution: one source of truth

Rather than layering on more tools, USA Mortgage decided to consolidate. They brought all their leads from referral partners, purchased sources, and past customers into a single unified platform: Total Expert's Lead Management.

But consolidation was just the first step toward preventing leads from slipping through the cracks. The real shift came when they connected three capabilities:

1. Customer IQ: identifying opportunities in your existing database

Most loan officers don't excel at proactively reaching out to past customers. They're focused on today's purchase business, and without a system to surface opportunities, past borrowers fade into the background.

Customer IQ changes that. It's a contextual data system that continuously monitors and enriches every contact record in your database. When a borrower experiences a life or market event that creates an opportunity such as a rate drop (refinance window), a credit inquiry from another lender, a debt threshold crossed, a marriage or divorce, Customer IQ spots it and brings it to your team’s attention.

At USA Mortgage, this meant monitoring 190,000 customers and turning insights into action. In just six months (January–June 2024), those customers generated:

  • ~$60 million in funded volume
  • $175 million in application pipeline (with expected 80% funding conversion)

That's an opportunity that was already sitting there; it just needed to be seen.

2. Lead Management: centralized workflow and accountability

With Customer IQ surfacing opportunities, USA Mortgage needed a system where loan officers could manage those leads the same way they manage purchased or referral partner leads.

Lead Management provided:

  • A single source of truth for all leads (past customers, referral partners, purchased leads)
  • Clear visibility into lead stage and action items
  • Consistent routing based on originator or branch
  • Automated nurture campaigns for borrowers who weren't ready yet
  • Compliance controls to ensure messaging is consistent and compliant

Suddenly, loan officers could answer three simple questions about every opportunity: Who is the lead? What do they need? Why is the opportunity present right now?

That context—that "why"—changes everything. It's the difference between a cold check-in call and a conversation-ready outreach.

3. AI Sales Assistant: outreach on demand & at scale

Even with a unified system and better intelligence, loan officers still can't personally call every past customer when the market shifts. If rates drop and 1,000 borrowers become in-the-money for a refi, even the most efficient lending teams can't operationalize that in the two or three weeks when the market window is open.

Enter AI Sales Assistant, a human-like voice AI that’s powered by Customer IQ’s contextual data and trained on real-world mortgage conversations so it can answer questions, navigate borrower objections, and qualify opportunities.

AI Sales Assistant acts as an extension of lending teams by:

  • Initiating outreach to all qualified past customers (potentially in a single day)
  • Personalizing the conversation based on the borrower's situation, previous transaction, and estimated savings
  • Handling objections gracefully (Alec shared the story of a borrower who said "I'm feeling sick, not a good time.” AI Sales Assistant responded with empathy and offered to schedule with the loan officer later, which the borrower accepted)
  • Offering warm transfers to the loan officer for borrowers ready to talk
  • Scheduling meetings on the originator's calendar for qualified leads

This allows loan officers to focus their time on high-quality conversations with informed borrowers, not figuring out who to call or manually working through a database.

Real-world execution

One of USA Mortgage's senior regional VPs shared a success story that perfectly captures the shift:

An experienced loan officer received a credit inquiry alert for a past customer; someone she hadn't worked with in years. The borrower had lost the loan officer’s contact information. But thanks to the alert surfaced by Customer IQ, the loan officer reached out with context and relevance.

The result? A $400K pipeline boost with minimal effort from the loan officer.

This doesn't happen with a generic check-in call. It happens when the loan officer knows why they're calling and has the data to back it up so the outreach feels timely instead of transactional.

The bigger picture: human + AI operating model

What USA Mortgage discovered is that the future isn't human or AI. It's human + AI.

The loan officer remains the relationship owner and builder, the decision-maker, the one who earns trust. But now, they're equipped with:

  • Intelligence about who to engage and why
  • Automation handling the high-volume, time-sensitive outreach
  • Consistency across the entire organization
  • Tools that make their job easier, not harder

Three takeaways

If you're struggling with lead follow-up, originators working in silos, or deals slipping out the back door, here's what to focus on:

1. Strong lead management isn't just about speed—it's about long-term nurturing
Speed matters for converting hot leads, but most conversions happen in the follow-up. Build a nurturing strategy that keeps borrowers engaged from first touch through the next opportunity to serve.

2. Your database is your biggest opportunity; operationalize it like a referral partner lead

If you're not connecting data intelligence with lead management, you're leaving deals on the table. Treat past-customer insights with the same urgency and structure as a purchased lead or referral partner referral.

3. Build an enterprise strategy with human + AI models

Replace ad-hoc originator habits (spreadsheets, personal reminders, disconnected systems) with a unified, AI-assisted operating model. Consistency across your sales force is what unlocks scale.

Watch the full conversation

Hear how USA Mortgage is using Total Expert to solve their lead management challenges, develop a better understanding of their customers, and engage opportunities at scale.

Ready to explore how a human + AI operating model could transform your originator productivity and customer conversions?

Reach out to your Total Expert Customer Success Manager or book a demo with our team below!

Expert Partner Network

The Moving Day Advantage: Transform Closing Day into a Loyalty Moment

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Meet the Partner: OneSource Solutions

OneSource Solutions is a utility concierge service that simplifies one of life's most stressful moments: setting up electricity, gas, internet, water, phone, home security, and other essential services after moving. OneSource handles the legwork by identifying providers, comparing options, and coordinating setup so homeowners can enjoy the excitement of their new home instead of stressing over the logistics. With over 1.1 million connections successfully completed, OneSource has built a reputation for taking chaos and turning it into peace of mind.

The moving day problem nobody's solving for

For some lenders, closing day is the end of the journey. But for their customers, it’s the start of a new chapter. There's joy in owning the keys. But there's also stress.

According to research, nearly 80% of Americans rank moving as one of life's top stressors. As if scheduling showings, putting in offers, and finally signing the paperwork wasn’t stressful enough—now borrowers have to figure out utilities, internet options, security systems, and more. And if they’re moving to an unfamiliar area where they don't know the companies and providers, they'll be making dozens of decisions with incomplete information, juggling phone calls and online portals, and trying not to miss setup deadlines.

The average homeowner spends 5–6 hours just coordinating these utilities. That's time spent on friction, confusion, and often overpaying for services they didn't adequately research or compare.

Lenders might walk away with a closed loan and a satisfied borrower, but they miss a critical opportunity that has a short window: Post-loan engagement. This is your chance to turn a single transaction into a lifetime of loyalty.

Why this moment matters for lenders

For years, the mortgage industry has focused heavily on the pre-close experience. That's where the relationship is built, where trust is established, and where communication is constant. But once the papers are signed, that relationship often goes dormant. That's a missed opportunity on multiple levels:

Retention: Borrowers who feel supported through the entire process, not just the financing part, develop deeper loyalty. They're more likely to come back for a refinance, a HELOC, or a new purchase down the road.

Referrals: Borrowers who enjoyed a smooth experience talk about it. When you go above and beyond to help them through the moving process, they’re more likely to become advocates and refer you to friends, family, and colleagues.

Competitive advantage: In a crowded lending market, showing up in the moments that matter sets you apart. It shifts you from being a lender to being a trusted advisor. The borrower's perspective changes from "they financed my home" to "they helped me through a major milestone."

Lifetime value: Today's borrower is tomorrow's repeat customer. A first-time homebuyer who closes with you at age 32 may need a refinance at 41, a HELOC at 48, and a move-up purchase at 53. That's three separate mortgage opportunities where they’ll need professional help—your help if you nailed the post-close experience.

The problem: fragmented solutions, fragmented experiences

Some lenders have tried to solve this by offering hodgepodge perks—a moving company discount here, a home service coupon there. But those aren't solutions. They're band-aids.

Borrowers don't want more options to manage. They want fewer things to think about. They want centralized, reliable, expert guidance on something they don't know much about—and they want it to come from someone they already trust: their lender. That's where OneSource comes in.

What OneSource does

OneSource removes the friction from setting up home utilities by acting as a concierge between the borrower and providers. Instead of the homeowner calling around to figure out which company services their address, comparing plans, and coordinating multiple setup appointments, OneSource does it—all in one place.

The service covers:

  • Identifying all available providers for a specific address (electricity, gas, internet, phone, home security, television, water, trash, etc.)
  • Comparing options and pricing in deregulated markets where choices exist
  • Securing exclusive discounts not available to the general public
  • Coordinating setup and activation so utilities are ready on or before move-in day
  • Saving borrowers 5–6 hours of coordination and often hundreds of dollars in optimized or exclusive pricing

For lenders, the value is even clearer: borrowers save time and money, feel supported, and associate that positive experience with the lender who connected them.

Over 1.1 million homeowners have used OneSource, and adoption rates among lender partners are consistently strong. Because it's not positioned as a "perk"—it's a genuine solution to a real problem that every homeowner faces.

How Total Expert and OneSource work together

Most lenders know they should be staying engaged with borrowers after closing. The challenge is execution: how do you make it seamless, scalable, and actually valuable?

The integration between Total Expert and OneSource answers that question.

Automated outreach at the right moment

Using Total Expert Journeys, lenders trigger a OneSource connection at the perfect time—typically 5–10 days before closing when the borrower is starting to think about logistics but hasn't yet begun the chaotic work of setting up utilities. The borrower receives an invitation to connect with OneSource, all contextualized within their communications with the lender.

One-click access

The borrower doesn't need to sign up for another platform or navigate a new website. They receive a direct link to their pre-populated OneSource profile, so the barriers to entry are near zero. They answer a few questions about their new address and service preferences, and OneSource takes it from there.

Transparent outcomes

As OneSource coordinates utilities and completes activations, lenders can see that engagement happening. When utilities are activated, when issues are resolved, when the borrower has saved money—that data stays visible in the context of borrower relationships, not in a siloed system.

Continuous engagement

The relationship doesn't end at utility setup. By bringing this service into Total Expert Journeys, lenders can sequence follow-up touchpoints that keep them connected as the borrower moves through the post-close window. A check-in on moving day. A referral prompt once utilities are stable. A follow-up six months later when the next major financial decision might be on the horizon.

It's frictionless for the borrower and scalable for the lender.

The lender advantage: from transaction to relationship

For lenders, the integration transforms closing from a transaction endpoint into a relationship milestone. Instead of handing off the borrower at the finish line, lenders stay present through one of the most stressful weeks of the entire home purchase process.

The outcome:

  • Higher engagement: Borrowers see their lender as a partner in their entire home transition, not just the financing part
  • Stronger loyalty: When you help reduce stress at a critical moment, that relationship becomes emotionally charged—the good kind
  • More referrals: Borrowers who had a smooth, end-to-end experience share that story. They refer lenders who "really took care of them"
  • Repeat business: Top-of-mind borrowers come back. For refinances. For HELOCs. For move-up purchases.
  • Competitive differentiation: Most lenders hand off at closing. You don't. That distinction registers with borrowers

The real competitive advantage: showing up when it matters

The lenders winning in today's market aren't the ones with the lowest rates or the most loan products. They're the ones building deeper, longer-lasting relationships with borrowers—and that starts with showing up in the moments that matter most.

Closing day is special. But it's not the end of the story. It's a milestone in a much longer relationship.

OneSource helps you stay present through what comes next. Total Expert helps you scale that presence across your entire organization.

Together, they transform how lenders think about the post-close window—from a time to forget about the borrower and move to the next deal, into an opportunity to build the kind of loyalty that keeps customers for life.

Ready to turn borrowers into lifetime customers?

The Expert Partner Network connects you with solutions designed for every stage of the borrower journey.  

Schedule a demo to see how Total Expert + OneSource can help you stay connected where it matters most.

Lead Management

Your Pipeline Just Got a Promotion

mins read
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Smart routing, contact-centric pipeline management, Journey automation, and real-time pipeline visibility have always been the core of Lead Management. But top-performing originators and strategic sales leaders told us they needed more if they were going to stay one step ahead in the current market. They asked; we delivered.  

Here's what's new in Lead Management.

So, an LOS and a sales pipeline walk into a bar...

Until now, keeping lead stages accurate required manual effort. When a loan moved forward in the LOS, someone had to remember to update the record in Total Expert. That gap between what was happening in the LOS and what the pipeline showed was friction nobody needed—and an opportunity to create confusion among lending teams.

Now, those updates are fully automated. When a loan status changes in your connected LOS, the corresponding lead stage advances in Total Expert. No more manual updates, no more room for error, and your pipeline view stays accurate at all times, so your team spends less time syncing data and more time working deals.

Tap into Lead Management from anywhere, on any device

Lead Management is now available in the Total Expert Mobile App!

Originators can view their leads, create new ones, and log notes and outcomes in Total Expert directly from their phone. Whether they're at a real estate agent’s office, a networking event, or just away from their desk, they have full access to the information they need to follow up fast. Speed to lead is critical, and Total Expert is here to help you outpace the competition.

Journeys that don't make you backtrack

As borrowers progress through automated Journey workflows (opening emails, responding to texts, talking to AI Sales Assistants, and completing key actions), your pipeline can advance right along with them. With a few tweaks in Journey Builder, you can update lead stages automatically to reduce manual entry and increase pipeline data accuracy.

Whose lead is it anyway?

One of the most disruptive things a lead routing system can do is reassign a lead that has already engaged with another originator. But if an owned contact re-enters the system with a different number or email, they might get sent back into the distribution queue instead of connected with the last originator they engaged with.

Lead Management significantly reduces that risk. Admins can configure routing policies to bypass distribution entirely when an incoming lead matches a contact already owned by an originator. That way, relationships stay intact, and your team avoids those awkward conversations about who actually owns the opportunity.

Give referral partners a peek behind the curtain

Referral relationships run on trust, and transparency helps you build and maintain that trust long term. When a referral partner sends you a lead, they deserve to know where it landed, how it’s progressing, and if it led to an application or closed loan.

This gives originators another way to understand who their top referral partners are, who’s providing the most leads, and which ones are converting so they can measure the impact of each referral partnership on their business

Cleaner data, better integrations, more doing what you do best

Lead records now include UTM parameters and additional standard fields, which means better source tracking and more consistent reporting. If you're trying to understand which campaigns, channels, or partners are generating your best leads, this data will give you more to work with.

And for teams using AI Sales Assistant or third-party dialers: lead details like loan purpose, property information, and lead ID can now be included in Outbound Data Connector payloads to give your external tools the context they need to make an impact from the very first touchpoint.

Fully loaded Lead Management

Total Expert Lead Management is built to help turn more opportunities into revenue by assigning leads faster, automating engagements and follow-ups, and giving sales leaders better visibility into what’s working and where the gaps are.  

Ready to see it in action? Schedule a demo or reach out to your Customer Success Manager for more info!

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