Lending

Prepping for Refis: What Lenders Need to Know

5 mins read
January 2, 2024
By
Mike Waterston

It may have taken longer than we were all expecting (and hoping for), but the Federal Reserve finally announced its first rate cut in over four years. Now, virtually everyone who bought a home in the last 18 months will be eager to take advantage. As the market shifts, mortgage lenders could be looking at as much as $500 billion in up-for-grabs refis.

But lenders will have to work a lot harder than they did in 2020 to capture those refis. And underneath that golden opportunity sits a tremendous risk: With a huge volume of practically new mortgages likely to turn over, loan servicers could see a number of recent loans running off their books while lenders face enormous early pay-off (EPO) penalties if they can’t hold onto their existing customers when they refinance.

Mortgage market will accelerate as Fed rates fall

After 11 rate hikes starting in March 2022, the Fed has been adamant that it intends to lower rates in 2024 and 2025. Exactly when those cuts will happen (and how big they’ll be) remains a mystery—one that causes significant market fluctuations after every meeting.

After two-plus years marked by rising rates and rising housing prices, mortgage lenders are naturally optimistic about the coming year. “We expect that this path for monetary policy should support further declines in mortgage rates, just in time for the spring housing market,” Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, told Bankrate. The National Association of Realtors predicts home sales will rise by 15% next year as falling rates bring hesitant buyers off the sidelines.

A very different kind of refi surge

But the real golden goose will be the oncoming wave of refinancing. Nearly every homeowner who bought between late 2022 and early 2024 did so with an explicit plan to refinance as soon as the highest rates in decades began falling.

How big is that refi opportunity? If rates drop below 6.625%, organizations working with Total Expert will be looking at an estimated $81 billion in refis up for grabs—and that opportunity jumps up to $190 billion if rates get below 6.0%.

But this refi surge is going to play out a lot differently than the one we experienced in 2020-2021. That was a true tidal wave: 2020 saw $2.6 trillion in inflation-adjusted refinance originations. Refi customers were pouring through lenders’ doors, and the only strategy then was: “try to keep up.”

In 2024/2025, lenders will see a lot more competition for that $190 billion in up-for-grabs refis. They won’t be able to sit back and wait for refis to come to them; their competition will be out stealing those opportunities.  

A major opportunity that could quickly turn into catastrophic risk

Mortgage lenders are going to have to balance two priorities: attracting new borrowers who patiently waited for rates to drop and retaining previous customers who impatiently waited for rates to drop. Both groups present major opportunities, but focusing too much on either could have severe and long-term consequences. Only focusing on new homebuyers means risking losing existing customers and incurring massive EPO penalties. On the other hand, ignoring new borrowers for the sake of retention means missing out on a huge slice of the new purchase pie.

That’s because the 2024/2025 refi surge will differ in another important way: Nearly all refis will be on mortgages originated within the last two years—with a huge portion originating within the last 12 to 18 months. Losing refis is always a hit to long-term revenue, but losing these refis will bring a wave of EPO penalties that will quickly overwhelm lenders that may already struggle to be profitable in the current market.

Given the volume of at-risk mortgages, the damage could quickly get serious. With the industry-average retention rate hovering around 20%, a mortgage lender that originated 1,400 loans above 6.5% over the last 15-18 months stands to lose over 1,000 of those refinance opportunities—adding up to $280 million on lost loan volume (assuming an average loan size of $250k). If 800 of those loans are less than six months old, they are at risk of paying out roughly $4.8 million in EPO penalties.

Proactive engagement will win the battle

Whereas 2020 was a bit of a “rising tide lifts all boats” situation, 2024/2025 will see a sharp divide between winners and losers in the mortgage lending industry. And for once, winning won’t be all about new originations and new customer acquisition: The top priority needs to be holding onto existing customers’ refis to prevent EPOs from torpedoing revenue and growth from below.

That means engaging customers proactively—now, not when rates finally drop—to help them understand what’s coming in 2024/2025. Help them make the cost-benefit calculation of refinancing at a lower rate versus waiting four, six, or eight months for rates to fall further. This is the kind of genuinely useful educational engagement that earns loyalty and will outshine the low-rate competitor offers, which are guaranteed to sit at the top of your customers’ inboxes every day.

Prioritizing refi retention: Put the mechanics in place now, or risk playing catch-up

Refi activity will accelerate quickly once rates start to drop in 2024. Your competitors will have their fingers on the trigger of their refi acquisition campaigns, aiming to be the first to entice your customers with low rates. But while they wait to steal your customers, you can start engaging and educating customers TODAY, positioning yourself as their best resource for when they’re ready to refi.

Want to see the four things that define the winning mortgage lenders?

Read our latest refi guide: https://info.totalexpert.com/dont-send-your-refinance-opportunities-into-orbit

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Navigating the HPPA Shift: Why It’s a Win for Lenders Who Put Customers First

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Change is the one constant in financial services, but the way we respond to it separates the leaders from the pack. The newly signed Homebuyer Privacy Protection Act (HPPA)—taking effect in March 2026—is a shift in how lenders can access and use consumer credit data. However, while some may view this as another regulatory headache, the reality is far more encouraging: it’s an opportunity to raise the bar on trust, transparency, and customer experience.  It’s another validation of our “Customer for Life” strategy.

This isn’t about dodging restrictions. It’s about recognizing that the playbook for winning customers is evolving—and those who embrace that evolution will come out stronger.

What’s changing?

Under the HPPA, credit bureaus can no longer sell a consumer’s credit file unless the lender meets one of a few narrow conditions:

  • Originated the consumer's current mortgage
  • Service the consumer's current mortgage
  • Obtained clear, documented consent from the consumer
  • As a bank or credit union, maintain an active account for that consumer

There’s even a GAO study on the way, examining how trigger-lead solicitations via text messaging impact consumers—a clear sign regulators are watching the fine line between engagement and harassment.

For lenders who have long relied on trigger leads, this represents a fundamental shift. But for institutions that have invested in building relationships the right way, this is good news.

What this means for lenders

The HPPA shuts the door on spray-and-pray solicitation tactics. But it opens the door wider for lenders who want to compete on trust and relationship strength. Specifically, it creates new opportunities to:

  • Deepen existing customer relationships with proactive, personalized engagement.
  • Capture consent earlier in the journey, before borrowers get lost in a flood of noise.
  • Differentiate in a less crowded, more consumer-friendly marketplace where trust is a true competitive advantage.

The lenders who lean in here will win—not because they shouted the loudest, but because they earned the right to stay connected.

Why this isn’t just another regulatory headache

Consumers have been saying it for years: the barrage of calls, texts, and emails after a mortgage application is exhausting. Some borrowers receive 100+ solicitations within 24 hours. That doesn’t build confidence—it erodes it. And we know this is not how our TE customers run their business.

HPPA represents a rare alignment of regulators, consumer advocates, and lenders themselves. It clears away predatory noise, improves the homebuying experience, and rewards lenders who put relationships at the center of their strategy.

As our Founder & CEO Joe Welu often reminds us, “Trust is the currency of modern financial services.” This law is an accelerant for lenders who understand that principle.

How we're going to help you thrive in a post-HPPA world

We’re not sitting on the sidelines waiting to see how this plays out. Our platform was purpose-built to help lenders engage customers in a way that’s personal, compliant, and built to last. Here’s how we’re making sure you’re ready for March 2026:

  • Proactive guidance: Our mortgage and tech experts are already helping lenders adjust monitoring practices, so they stay compliant without losing momentum.
  • Expand Customer Intelligence: We’re finalizing new capabilities to drive increased awareness and enrichment of your relationships, including expanding CI to all three bureaus, and streamlining our credit improvement alert.
  • Investments in consent: Upgraded features coming soon to capture and respect consumer consent in clear, frictionless ways—including through our ecosystem partnerships.

This isn’t a band-aid or a reaction; it’s an evolution of how modern lenders build sustainable engagement to develop customers for life.

Bottom line: this isn’t a roadblock—it’s an opportunity

Every regulatory change comes with friction. But HPPA isn’t just about compliance—it’s about clarity. It’s about stripping away noise and giving lenders who prioritize relationships a stage to shine.

The lenders who thrive in this new environment won’t be the ones chasing trigger leads. They’ll be the ones investing in trusted, personalized engagement—from first touch through every financial milestone.

And that’s exactly what Total Expert was built to help you do: navigate the shifts, build lifelong trust, and continue winning customers for life.

AI

Authenticity at Scale: Using AI to Deliver Genuine Customer Experiences

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AI has surged from curious novelty to critical business driver faster than any other technology in the digital age. With AI capabilities evolving faster than most financial institutions (FIs) and marketing teams can train for, it’s easy to understand how leveraging AI tools and enterprise solutions effectively can become a frustrating experience for both leadership and marketing pros.

While every organization’s challenges are unique, one common thread is that most FIs lack a clearly defined strategy or framework for selecting, implementing, and using their AI solutions.

Here are three foundational elements to help marketing leaders accelerate AI-enabled customer engagement without losing control of authentic, on-brand customer experiences.

Focus on using AI to scale—not replace—your team

The AI revolution arrives with ironic timing for FIs: We’ve spent the last decade talking about how to bring back the human touch in a digital-first world. On the surface, it’s easy to think that AI will push us in the opposite direction—breeding more generic, cold, impersonal experiences.

But like other tech tools, the most immediate and significant value will come in using AI as a tool to scale your team’s capabilities. What does that look like in practice?

  • Automating or offloading the tedious and repetitive work your team does: Think about AI agents cold-calling for lead gen, doing time-consuming data analysis, or handling the orchestration of complicated, multi-touch, multi-channel, anything-but-linear customer journeys.
  • Unlocking deeper insights, faster: AI can dive into your customer data to find new kinds of intent signals in real time. Imagine identifying those key periods of transition or change in peoples’ lives—graduating, getting married, starting a family, changing careers, retiring—so your team can show up for customers at these critical moments.
  • Freeing up more time for human connections: At the simplest level, AI applied well will allow your team to do more with less—and that will give them more time to focus on where and how to provide that human touch and make those genuine one-to-one engagements. This is what we’ve been doing at Total Expert for more than a decade now through better analytics and smarter automation. AI just turbocharges everything.

Choose the right AI—and connect it to your core systems

Not even three years after ChatGPT opened this AI era, there are thousands of AI tools on the market—including hundreds of marketing-specific AI solutions. Don’t be fooled by the “they’re all the same under the hood” line—the packaging is critical to the usability and time-to-value with these tools, especially when it comes to delivering authentic experiences.

It’s really a classic Goldilocks problem: On one side of the spectrum, the big-name generalist AI platforms that claim to do everything produce generic experiences for your customers. They’re not built for the highly regulated, highly sensitive kinds of engagement and conversations that FIs have with their customers. Plus, it takes a lot of work—and time and money—to get them to work like you need them to.

On the other side of the spectrum are hyper-specialized AI apps built to do one very specific task right out of the box—but lacking the broader capabilities to connect with your core systems and orchestrate entire experiences. This kind of extremely focused functionality ends up creating maddening experiences for customers when they hit the limitations of the tools’ knowledge and capabilities. FIs need AI tools built with enterprise-grade, enterprise-wide capabilities—able to tie into your marketing system of record so they can see and orchestrate the full customer journey.

If you can solve that Goldilocks problem — finding an AI solution built for financial services and connecting it at the core of your CX — you can realize the full efficiencies and, more importantly, deliver a more genuine, helpful, brand-authentic experience.

Give your AI the inputs that set it up for success

Using GenAI to create content — copy, design, video, etc. — really can feel like magic. But the reality is that it’s inherently derivative. In other words, the outputs are only as good as the inputs — like the classic analytics adage: garbage in, garbage out.

If you want to maintain brand authenticity, create reliably compliant outputs, and deliver consistent experiences that feel seamless for your customers, you need to help the AI fully understands your brand, your engagement strategy, and your acute and big-picture objectives.

Best practices for prompt engineering is an article—or an entire book—in itself. But the point is, as incredible as AI is, it’s still a tool — and a tool requires a skilled, intentional user. Cultivating these skills also takes intention. Workers in any role can feel naturally hesitant to be open about their AI use and experimentation; they don’t want to risk looking lazy or replaceable. But to move forward effectively with AI, FIs need to build a culture that encourages that experimentation and sharing of new use cases and best practices.

AI as an engine for authenticity

There’s little doubt that AI will lead to a surge in impersonal, generic banking experiences. That’s not a condemnation of AI; it will be the result of FIs using generic AI tools and generic AI strategies.

That also means that genuine, personalized experiences will become even more differentiated in this incredibly competitive industry. The key is to focus on how to use AI to amplify what we’ve always strived to do in this industry: make real connections and build authentic relationships based on trust.

By focusing on these three principles — using AI to help your team focus on scaling human connections, choosing the right tool and integrating it deeply, and giving your AI the best possible inputs — you’re building a strategy that makes AI an engine for authenticity. The reward isn't just increased efficiency; it's the ability to deliver authentic, brand-consistent experiences at a scale never before possible.

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[Lykken on Lending podcast] Supercharging Mortgage Lending with AI

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The mortgage industry is in the midst of a historic transformation—and artificial intelligence is leading the way. Our Founder & CEO, Joe Welu, joined David Lykken for an episode of the Lykken on Lending podcast to discuss how Total Expert’s AI solutions will reshape the customer journey for lenders.

From incubating leads and mining databases to nurturing post-close relationships, Joe shares how voice AI is giving loan officers “superpowers” that help scale productivity, improve retention, and focus on delivering the high-value advice consumers need most. With compliance guardrails built in and multiple AI agents on the horizon, this episode offers an inside look at the future of mortgage lending and why early adopters of AI will hold a major competitive edge.

Joe also explains why the human element remains central to homeownership, and how AI is designed not to replace loan officers, but to free them up for more meaningful conversations that strengthen customer trust and drive long-term loyalty.

Catch the conversation to hear how AI is revolutionizing lending and why Joe believes those who embrace it will be tomorrow’s market leaders.

Supercharging Mortgage Lending with AI

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